WATCHLIST 20080713

CRUDE OIL
Iran, Israel spat is adding fuel to “dollar-weakness-driven” oil. Technically on charts, it has built almost an impenetrable support (for near term only) at $135 levels. Down move may get arrested here. But oil moving through $150 towards $155 would not be a surprise once it breaches $147(cmp $144.5).

INFLATION
It is going to stay here due to oil and gold, latter being in bullish mode once again.

EARNINGS
It is an earnings season and some results may bring enthusiasm though, for short term because inflation is going to have its impact on forthcoming quarters.

POLITICS
Cautious optimism in UPA and full blown campaign against it before the confidence motion will keep the country fingers crossed until 22nd July. Result of the motion would give a very sharp move in either direction. Watchout!!

MARKETS
DJIA is headed towards 10700 as support 11000(cmp 11107) is unlikely to be held.
FTSE 100 is one of the weakest and has broken important support at 5400(cmp 5262). Medium term target is projected as 4400-4500.
NIKKEI Downtrend likely to continue (cmp 13067). Either side Breakout range 12000-13500.
HANGSENG sideways but should hold support 21000(cmp 22184).
SHANGHAI could be the first to move up after being battered the most. Breakout range is 2700-3000.
SENSEX is in negative mode and headed towards 12400 on a close below 13290 (also another signal for downward move would be a breach of 13000 on intraday basis)


The overall scenario above does not portray a pretty picture yet, this may not be used for intraday trading. Rather, I would visualise the charts in the direction of September with expiry date on 31st July and focus on an important date 22nd in its way. Please note that the levels given here are for near term though, these may or may not touch the targets ever.
UPDATES (ONLY IF NECESSARY) WOULD APPEAR EITHER AT 0900hrs, 1230hrs, 1430hrs OR 2100hrs. (-5:30hrs GMT)