WATCHLIST 04AUG TO 08AUG

Nowadays, every second there is tens of breaking news on TV and other sources. Too much of news can spoil your strategy. The best thing is to keep a list of “important items” with you for planning a strategy. You will ruin yourself emotionally and also financially by trying to catch up with every news –unless you are a day trader looking for that “illusive kill” in the market.

Tracking news as per the following could act as your watch list for determining the market reactions and trend. This will be useful for market as a whole. But one can have few additional items on this list for the particular stock one trades in.

MARKETS

DJIA a rally possible above 11600 but it will be a bear market rally only. Can also slide down again if 11250 is broken on the downside.

NIKKEI looking weak and is likely to slide further in days ahead.

FTSE Breakout range is 5250-5450. But it is still a bear market.

HANGSENG is looking upward towards 23500. A possible breakout can target 26500.

SHANGHAI still in a range of 2600-3000. But upward breakout is more likely.

BSE SENSEX Breakout range is 14000-15400. Upward breakout is more likely.

(India, Shanghai and Hong Kong markets are looking promising among the lot here)

CRUDE OIL

is holding support $122. Breakout below would target $110. But breakout above $133 would signal the uptrend once again. Iran Israel shadow is on the horizon again.

INFLATION

Clouds have not cleared yet and even a small tick up would turn the markets down. Keep a watch on figures every week.

MONSOON AND AGRICULTURE

This is a data which we feel funny when discussed in fractional terms. Monsoon data does have a positive impact unless there is widespread drought. In our opinion, up to 20% less rain does not cause a shortfall in overall agricultural output. So, leave that fractional calculation to experts and TV channels.

INTEREST RATE

US FED rate on the 5 th July

BOE and ECB interest rate on the 7 th July

EARNINGS

India is almost done with the important quarterly earnings but the US has still to roll out some more...keep a watch!

Over all, the earnings are just run of the mill product but a slowdown is on the cards ahead due inflationary impact besides ominous signs in the US economy.