WELCOME 2009!

The world markets started the year on an upbeat note. All the markets are in an uptrend but faced with formidable resistance bands ahead.

U.S.(DOW) can move towards the resistance 9500 and S&P500 towards 1000.

U.K.(FTSE100) is likely to move above its crucial resistance at 4600 on its way towards 5600.

JAPAN(NIKKEI) is in an uptrend and a close above 9500 would be a very positive sign.

HANGSENG is also above its crucial 15000 levels and taking cue from world markets.

CHINA(SHANGHAI) is the only exception that is in a downtrend and likely to continue.

INDIA(BSE SENSEX) is in short term uptrend but faced with resistance band 10700-11000.

Markets are ignoring all the negative news at the moment because those are already factored into the price. But this uptrend is only a bear market rally that can fizzle out somewhere near or little above the given resistance levels. They do have to fizzle out finally because the recession is real. Even the emerging markets would have to take a cue from the recovery in DOW whenever there is a sign of that. Until then we are trading in the bear markets every where around the world.

The quarterly results this month would keep things in a volatile mode. More so because the resistances ahead are unlikely to be breached firmly and the likelihood of touching the previous lows would loom large in the minds of investors and traders.

Have the markets bottomed out? No, they don't seem to have bottomed out but a sustainable trough for the medium term has most likely been formed at October lows.

GOLD is watching the movement in EURUSD. The outlook is neutral until it trades in a band between 800 and 920.

There are no signs of bullishness in Crude Oil prices in the near to medium term. Declining prices of crude causes more fear of slowing economy.

Stimulus packages around the world could keep us in a buoyant mood from time to time but finally they might prove to be insufficient until housing market in the U.S. bottoms out, unemployment abates and consumer confidence rises.
Keep a check on U.S. economic data and interest rate decisions.